The escalation of the Sino-US conflict caused bitcoin to fall below 104K, CryptoQuant analysis: the uptrend is not over

As the conflict between China and the US intensifies, Bitcoin fell more than 2% on May 30, briefly dropping below 104k. Behind this wave of decline, China criticized Trump for abusing export controls, while the US Secretary of Defense hinted that they are "ready to go to war with China." Despite the strong performance of the US stock market, the crypto market is under pressure due to rising risk aversion and a surge in liquidations.

The intensifying conflict between China and the United States has triggered market turmoil.

The geopolitical tensions between China and the United States have escalated again, becoming one of the main reasons for today's dramatic market fluctuations. On May 30, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly condemned U.S. President Trump for abusing semiconductor export controls, believing that the U.S. side is undermining the temporary trade consensus reached by both parties in Geneva recently:

The United States' export controls on Chinese chips and electronic equipment are discriminatory and detrimental to both parties. We urge the U.S. side to immediately correct the mistake and withdraw the improper restrictions.

Following this, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made a strong statement at the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore today, stating that China's military threat to Taiwan is "real and potentially imminent," and that the U.S. military is prepared "to confront and defeat China if necessary:"

We call on our Asian allies to follow Europe's example and increase their defense budgets to safeguard the stability of the Indo-Pacific region.

The hardline rhetoric from the US has triggered market turbulence, with investors worried that if the US and China head towards confrontation again, it could impact the flow of funds in the global supply chain, thereby intensifying pressure on risk assets. The escalation of the US-China game has become the primary uncertainty facing the global financial market.

(BTC falls! The China-US chip war escalates, China angrily criticizes the Trump administration for abusing export controls )

The US stock market reacts steadily.

However, even as tensions rise between China and the United States, the U.S. stock market remains relatively stable:

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): up 0.1%.

S&P 500 Index (S&P 500): slight fall of 0.01%.

Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQ): fell 0.4%.

Overall, the U.S. stock market performed strongly in May, with the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite index rising by 6.2% and 9.6%, respectively, and have now returned to the levels prior to the start of the tariff war at the end of February this year.

Bitcoin falls below 104K, but the upward trend is still expected to continue.

Unlike traditional financial markets, Bitcoin (BTC) fell about 2.3% within 24 hours, reaching a low of $103,289, the lowest point in nearly two weeks.

Cryptographic assets should possess the attribute of being resistant to geopolitical risks, but under the macroeconomic contraction and the spread of panic sentiment, it is still difficult to escape selling pressure in the short term. As intraday long positions were liquidated for over 630 million dollars, the total market capitalization of the crypto market also shrank to 3.34 trillion dollars.

Although Bitcoin is experiencing short-term adjustment pressure, on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that the market realized profits (NRPL) are still at a relatively moderate level. Compared to the peak periods of the bull market in March and November 2024, the current level of profit-taking is not extreme, indicating that there is no large-scale panic selling in the overall market.

This round of profit-taking may lead to a short-term consolidation, but has not yet constituted a trend reversal signal; the upward cycle of Bitcoin still has the potential to continue.

This article discusses the escalation of the US-China conflict leading to Bitcoin falling below 104K. CryptoQuant analysis: the upward trend is not over yet, first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.