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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (05.30 - 06.06)
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Table of Contents:
1. Market Trend
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market value of digital currencies reached $3.579 trillion, a decrease of 7.9% compared to the previous period. The trading volume on exchanges dropped, reaching between $4 billion and $8 billion. The price of Bitcoin fell by 4% to $101,530. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is showing a downward trend, and investor sentiment is relatively cautious.
According to the Gate Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is "Fear", with an index of 45, indicating that the overall market sentiment is quite pessimistic. Compared to last week and last month, the market sentiment has declined.
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1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
According to the latest data, the pace of global economic recovery has slowed and inflationary pressures persist. U.S. CPI rose 4.9% year-on-year in May, higher than expectations of 4.7% but down from 4.9% in April. Eurozone CPI came in at 6.1% y/y in May, higher than expectations of 6.0%. There is an 82.5% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June, and another rate hike is expected this year. The ECB is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July.
The Producer Price Index is a leading indicator of inflation. The US PPI rose 2.3% year-on-year in April, below expectations of 2.5% and the previous reading of 2.7%. The annual rate of PPI in the eurozone was 4.3% in April, down from 5.1% in the previous month. PMI data showed a slowdown in the economy. The U.S. manufacturing PMI was 48.4 in May, below the 50 line for the seventh consecutive month. The Eurozone composite PMI in May was 52.8, a 31-month low.
Other data also point to a slowdown in the economy. U.S. housing starts in April came in at an annualized rate of 14,200, lower than expectations of 14,800. The number of initial jobless claims rose by 280,000 month-on-month to 242,000. Used car prices fell by 4.7% year-on-year. Overall, the crypto market is likely to face more volatility due to high inflation, slowing demand, and a weak job market.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis summary: This week, several important economic data will be released. China's May CPI year-on-year and PPI year-on-year will reflect domestic inflation levels. The UK will release April employment data. The US will release May CPI and PPI data, reflecting inflationary pressures. The Eurozone will release April trade surplus and industrial output data. Investors will closely monitor this data to assess the growth prospects of each economy and the direction of central bank policies.
2. Analysis of Funds and Price Fluctuations
2.1. Price Volatility Analysis
BTC has a volatility of 1.23% for the week. The BTC price has fluctuated around $105,000 this week, a slight decrease from last week. The main reason is that the market is cautious about the debt ceiling bill proposed by the Trump administration, and investors' optimism about the prospects of stablecoins has diminished after the successful IPO of Circle.
Trading volume analysis: BTC has an average daily trading volume of about $250 billion this week, down from last week. The decline in trading volume reflects a decrease in market activity, and investors have a wait-and-see sentiment about the market outlook. However, whale addresses continue to increase their holdings of BTC, showing confidence in the long-term improvement of the currency price.
Market Sentiment: Despite the pressure on BTC prices in the short term, the demand for BTC remains strong in the long term. The Trump administration's pro-crypto stance is expected to push for regulatory clarity, which will clear the way for institutional investors to enter the market. At the same time, the continued approval of Bitcoin ETFs will also be an important catalyst for future price upside.
Outlook: If the Trump administration can smoothly pass the debt ceiling bill and alleviate market concerns about the economic outlook, the BTC price is expected to rebound above $107,000 within this week. However, if the bill encounters significant resistance, the coin price may continue to oscillate in the short term.
2.2. Fund Analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, we can see that the activity in the cryptocurrency market has increased. Major currencies such as VIRTUAL, STX, and A have seen significant capital inflows. This indicates that investors' confidence in the cryptocurrency market has strengthened.
However, there are also some currencies experiencing net capital outflows, such as NEAR and LPT. This may reflect investors' concerns or wait-and-see sentiments regarding certain projects. Overall, institutional investors have a larger inflow of funds, while retail investors' activity is relatively moderate.
From the perspective of capital flow, the price of the cryptocurrency market may maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term. However, investors still need to closely monitor market dynamics and cautiously seize investment opportunities.
The increase in market activity is often accompanied by greater volatility. Investors need to have a full understanding of the risks and take appropriate risk management measures.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often indicates market trends. By analyzing large order trading volumes and capital flow situations, we can gain insight into the movements of institutional investors.
Bitcoin(BTC) In recent weeks, the large transaction volume of BTC has shown a net outflow trend, indicating that institutional investors are gradually reducing their positions. This may be due to the uncertainty of the macroeconomic outlook. However, as the flagship cryptocurrency, BTC still holds long-term investment value.
Ethereum(ETH) Unlike BTC, the large order trading volume of ETH shows a net inflow status. This indicates that institutional investors are increasing their stake in ETH, which is expected to drive the price of ETH further up. As the leader of smart contract platforms, the development prospects of ETH are highly regarded.
Overall, institutional investors are currently cautious about BTC and more optimistic about ETH. This could lead to short-term pressure on BTC, while ETH is expected to extend its uptrend. However, in the long run, BTC's position as the cornerstone of cryptocurrencies is difficult to shake.
3. Hot Topics
According to the provided data, the most frequently discussed hot topic in the past week is the rumor about whether Ripple will acquire Circle. Here are the relevant topic reports:
🔥 Ripple denies acquiring Circle! A big drama unfolds in the crypto world, with a new strategy brewing?
Shocking the crypto world! Ripple is reported to acquire Circle for $5 billion
Recently, there has been an astonishing rumor in the crypto circle: Ripple (XRP) is in negotiations for a multi-billion dollar acquisition with stablecoin issuer Circle. This news quickly spread on crypto social media, sparking heated discussions.
Some analysts believe that if Ripple successfully acquires Circle, it will be able to integrate its XRP ecosystem with the infrastructure of USDC, thereby surpassing the dominance of USDT. This would undoubtedly be a significant strategic move.
As soon as the news broke, XRP's price briefly surged, reflecting investors' optimistic sentiment regarding the rumor. However, the reality is not so simple.
Ripple executives appear to deny acquisition rumors
In response to the escalating speculation, the top executives of Ripple have finally made a statement. CEO Brad Garlinghouse clearly stated at a crypto conference in Las Vegas that Ripple "has never sought to acquire Circle," and such a deal does not align with the company's current strategic goals.
At the same time, Ripple's Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz also admitted on X (formerly Twitter) that his previous remark about Circle possibly being sold for $6 billion was just a "wild joke."
These authoritative statements undoubtedly dealt a blow to the acquisition rumors, but also led to more speculation about the future strategic plans of Ripple.
Ripple is brewing a new strategy, will stablecoins become a focus?
Despite denying rumors of acquiring Circle, Garlinghouse hinted that Ripple is exploring "new strategic directions." This inevitably brings to mind the following possibilities:
Launch of Own Stablecoin: Ripple has announced that it will launch a stablecoin backed 1:1 by USD reserves in 2024. If this highly transparent and audited stablecoin is successfully launched, it could directly compete with USDC and even challenge USDT's dominance in the future.
Deepening Bank Cooperation: Ripple may be seeking to establish strategic partnerships with more banks, including central bank digital currency pilots, regional bank integration, and using the XRP ledger as an alternative to SWIFT.
Building a DeFi Ecosystem: Some analysts speculate that Ripple may be quietly creating a liquidity ecosystem based on DeFi, using XRP as the foundational layer for on-chain finance.
Regardless of what the new strategy for Ripple is, it could further enhance the utility and transparency of XRP, thereby driving up its price. In fact, over the past 30 days, whale addresses have been continuously accumulating XRP.
Conclusion: The next step for Ripple is the main event
Overall, although the rumors of acquiring Circle have been denied, Ripple seems to be preparing for a long-term dominance in stablecoins, decentralized finance, and the entire fintech sector.
Mergers and acquisitions in the cryptocurrency space have always been a hot topic, and Ripple's statement this time will undoubtedly spark more speculation and attention. We will wait and see what major strategies this company will roll out next.
4. Major Events
Recent Major Impact Events
The Trump administration nominated individuals who support cryptocurrency for the positions of Secretary of the Treasury and Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ). This move is seen as a signal of a shift in U.S. policy towards a more crypto-friendly stance, with hopes of propelling the cryptocurrency market into a "golden age."
Coinbase has announced the launch of Lagrange(LA) with an experimental label. Once liquidity conditions are met, the LA-USD trading pair will be rolled out in phases. This initiative is expected to enhance the visibility and liquidity of Lagrange.
Gate's CBO Kevin Lee responded to the recent price volatility event of the LA contract. Gate allows all affected users to retain profits while covering all losses for users who were liquidated, with a total amount exceeding 30 million dollars.
According to SoSoValue data, the cryptocurrency market has seen a pullback for two consecutive days, with the Meme and DeFi sectors dropping by 3.59% and 3.72% respectively. However, Ethereum remains relatively strong, with only a 0.28% decrease in the past 24 hours.
Despite the overall pullback in the crypto market, the PayFi, RWA, and SocialFi sectors remain relatively strong, rising by 1.20%, 0.22%, and 0.01% respectively in the last 24 hours.
The SOPR of Bitcoin surged by 16% amid high profit-taking, reflecting high-risk signals. Bitcoin's dominance is also nearing resistance levels, suggesting the market may cool down.
Bitcoin is hovering below a key support level, increasing the chances of a liquidity sweep before a potential reversal. Traders are waiting for signals of a price breakout above the resistance level.
The market maker vault of the decentralized exchange HyperLiquid has grown from $163 million to $418 million in the past two months, despite previously being affected by the JELLY incident.
Bitcoin's dominance has once again tested the 65% level after breaking out of a wedge that lasted for 180 trading days. If dominance drops below 63%, many altcoins may rally.
White House Digital Asset Presidential Advisor Bo Hines met with Salvadoran President Bukele to discuss areas of cooperation in Bitcoin, stablecoins, and digital assets.
Despite Tether freezing some of its assets, the global ledger report indicates that approximately $15 million in assets are still moving.
Sui(SUI) shows a potential bullish pattern on the 4-hour chart, which may suggest an impending reversal.
The Trump Media & Technology Group submitted an S-1 application regarding a Bitcoin ETF to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which will be listed and traded on the NYSE Arca.
Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey purchased $100 worth of fries at Steak'n Shake using the Bitcoin Lightning Network, sparking heated discussions in the crypto community.
Bitcoin community member Adam Back has called on Musk to store wealth in Bitcoin, citing Satoshi's words to explain the view that government spending is essentially taxation.
5. Global Policies
The following is a summary and analysis of new political dynamics, economic policies, or regulations related to the global cryptocurrency industry, based on news from May 30 to June 6, 2025, along with their impact on the industry and the market.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore Issues New Regulations to Strictly Regulate the Cryptocurrency Industry
Description:
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released the "Licensing Guidelines for Digital Token Service Providers" at the end of May, implementing strict regulations on the cryptocurrency industry. The new rules will take effect at the end of June, with no grace period. This policy shift is seen as a drastic transition for Singapore from a "crypto paradise" to an "exodus order," shocking the industry.
Impact Analysis:
Singapore has previously adopted a lenient policy towards the cryptocurrency industry, attracting numerous crypto companies and practitioners seeking development. The introduction of new regulations will force these companies and practitioners to reassess their development prospects in Singapore. A significant number of crypto companies and talent are expected to leave Singapore in search of a more favorable development environment. This could negatively impact Singapore's status as a blockchain and crypto hub.
The U.S. Treasury Launches $10 Billion Bond Buyback Program
Description:
On June 4, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the launch of a record $10 billion U.S. bond repurchase operation, which is considered a "stripped-down QE." The move is aimed at easing long-term interest rate pressures and stabilizing financial markets, reflecting the Fed's continued wait-and-see attitude in the current high interest rate environment.
Impact Analysis:
Although this measure is not an official quantitative easing policy, it effectively supports asset prices. Analysts believe that the improvement in dollar liquidity in the short term will boost the performance of risk assets, and the crypto market may benefit from this. This could prompt investors to refocus on the crypto market, bringing new capital inflows to crypto assets.
Brazil Considers Taxing Cryptocurrency Transactions
Description:
In the public debate regarding the executive order to increase financial transaction taxes, Brazil is considering taxing cryptocurrency transactions to mitigate the impact of this tax increase on a broader population.
Impact Analysis:
If Brazil finally decides to tax cryptocurrency transactions, it will increase the cost of cryptocurrency transactions, potentially dampening cryptocurrency trading activity in the country. But at the same time, it also means that the Brazilian government is gradually bringing cryptocurrencies into the scope of regulation, laying the foundation for the long-term development of the industry.
Summary: Policies & Regulations
Overall, policy moves such as tighter regulations in Singapore, the launch of a bond buyback program by the U.S. Treasury, and Brazil's consideration of taxing cryptocurrencies reflect the increased regulation of the crypto industry by global regulators. On the one hand, strict regulation helps curb the use of cryptocurrencies in illegal activities and maintain the stability of the financial system. On the other hand, overly strict regulation may also hinder the innovation and development of the industry. Countries are struggling to strike a balance between supporting innovation and preventing risks. Overall, these policy developments will have a profound impact on the development landscape of the cryptocurrency industry.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendation
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and do not constitute financial advice. Investment carries risks, please make decisions cautiously.
6.2 Investment Strategy
Technical Analysis of Popular Tokens This Week
The CIRCLE token, fueled by social media marketing, has gained phenomenal exposure and price increases in the short term. But its value is heavily dependent on social media buzz and market sentiment, and changes in these factors can lead to wild swings in the token's price. The SOL token has recently been affected by the outflow of funds from giant whales, and the price has fallen. However, usage metrics for the Solana network remain strong, and fundamentals point to long-term strength. The FIL token fell below the key support level of $2.54, and there are further downside risks in the near term.
Trading Robot Strategy Analysis
Summary: This week, the quantitative strategies are diversified, including traditional strategies such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands, as well as innovative strategies like grid and volatility reversal. Investors can choose suitable strategies based on their own risk preferences and judgments on currency volatility.
6.3. Financial Management Products
Yubi Bao
Yubibao helps to match users with idle assets and those in need of loans. After users subscribe to Yubibao, the system will determine at each full hour whether the loan is successfully issued based on the user's set lending rate and actual borrowing demand, as well as the interest rate for that hour. Successful loans can earn interest for that hour.
Yubi Bao allows users to customize interest rates. Users can set the minimum lending rate during the subscription process, and once the lending is confirmed at the designated time, the earnings will be calculated based on the confirmed rate. The interest generated every hour will be automatically reinvested, and when redeeming, the principal and interest can be redeemed together.
The total amount of USDT in Yubi Treasure is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated annualized return rate of 16.65% + 8.87%.
Wealth Management Treasure
LiCaiBao is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate, including current and fixed-term savings as well as all other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of financial products in various types of digital currencies.
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Structured Finance
Gate structured financial products are a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as options. Generally, the settlement yield level is determined by comparing the price performance of the underlying asset during the investment period with the specified linked price, and can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive.
Okay, I will generate the relevant data table based on your request.
Annotation示意：
Disclaimer: The above data is for reference only, actual interest rates may vary, and investors should conduct thorough due diligence before making investment decisions.
6.4. Technical Analysis: ETH Bollinger Band Trading Strategy Backtest
Trading Strategy
Backtesting Results
Based on the historical data of ETH from January 1, 2024, to June 6, 2025, the backtesting results are as follows:
Data Analysis
Advantages
Disadvantages
Overall, this strategy is suitable for investors with a higher risk appetite and performs well in a bull market. However, it needs further optimization and improvement in a sideways or volatile market.