Zhongjin predicts: US prices may rise moderately, the attitude of the Federal Reserve (FED) in the June meeting may be hawkish.

On June 12, CICC issued an article saying that it is inclined to see a round of price increases in the United States in the next few months, but unlike 2021-2022, this round of price increases is more structural and one-time characteristics, rather than comprehensive inflation. The dovish inflation data is good news for the Fed, but officials will not make major decisions based on the monthly data. Since the labor market is still stable, the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates, and officials may prefer to look at a few more sets of data before making a decision. Next week, the Federal Reserve will have its June interest rate meeting. CICC believes that the FOMC may slightly raise its inflation forecast in June compared to the dot plot in March, when there were no "reciprocal tariffs", but the Fed's assessment of growth may be more optimistic than in March due to the resilience of non-farm payrolls and the cooling of tariffs. As a result, Powell's tone at this meeting may be hawkish, which may disappoint investors who expect the Fed to cut interest rates.