The Resilience of Digital Assets: Bitcoin's Survival Strategy in Turbulent Times

Introduction: Stress Testing of Global Financial Markets

In June 2025, the global financial markets are undergoing an unprecedented stress test. The destruction of nuclear bombers by Ukrainian drones has raised concerns about nuclear proliferation, US-China trade frictions have resurfaced, and the situation in the Middle East remains tense. In this complex scenario, the price of traditional safe-haven asset gold has soared to around $3450 per ounce, while Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable stability around the $105,000 mark. This performance, which is "decoupled" from geopolitical crises, reflects a profound change in the underlying logic of the cryptocurrency market. This article will explore Bitcoin's survival strategies amidst macro turmoil from three aspects: market structure, macro cycles, and the reconstruction of monetary order.

1. The Failure of the Geopolitical Shock Transmission Mechanism: From Panic Amplifier to Risk Isolator

1. The "dulling effect" of conflict impact

On June 13, when the situation in the Middle East intensified, Bitcoin quickly stabilized after a 2% drop within just 2 hours, which is in stark contrast to the 10% drop in a single day during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. This improvement in resilience stems from a qualitative change in market structure: data shows that by 2025, the proportion of long-term holders will exceed 70%, while the proportion of speculative chips has fallen to a five-year low. Institutional investors have effectively buffered the immediate impact of sudden events through a hedging system established in the derivatives market.

2. Paradigm Shift of Risk Avoidance Logic

The "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin is being redefined. With expectations of the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, the negative correlation (-0.72) between Bitcoin and the real yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries has significantly strengthened, making it closer to a "liquidity hedge tool" rather than merely a safe-haven asset. When the U.S. Treasury auction on June 1st was lukewarm, leading to a surge in real rates, Bitcoin's inverse rise validated this new attribute.

3. Geopolitical premium's "targeted absorption"

The energy supply chain crisis triggered by the Middle Eastern conflict has objectively accelerated the process of de-dollarization. The share of oil exports settled in Bitcoin through the Central Bank of Iran has exceeded 15%, and this penetration of the real economy has partially transformed geopolitical risks into a rigid demand for Bitcoin. Blockchain analysis shows that the on-chain transaction volume of wallet addresses in conflict areas surged by 300% after the incident.

2. The Nested Game of Macroeconomic Cycles: Dual Support from Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Inflation Relief

1. The Certainty Dividend of Monetary Policy Shift

Market expectations for a rate cut in the third quarter have reached 68%, which is directly reflected in the steepening of the Bitcoin term structure: the annualized premium of the futures contract for June 15 has risen to 23%, a new high since the halving in 2024. Historical data shows that in the 3 months leading up to the start of a rate cut cycle, Bitcoin's average increase is 37%, far exceeding gold's 12%.

2. Structural Resolution of Inflation Stickiness

In May, the core PCE price index fell to 2.8% year-on-year, and the supply chain pressure index dropped to pre-pandemic levels. This weakened Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative but unexpectedly released its "growth-sensitive asset" attribute. The latest financial report from a large tech company shows that the accounting treatment for companies holding Bitcoin has shifted from "intangible asset" to "strategic reserve," marking the beginning of institutions incorporating it into their growth stock valuation framework.

3. Arbitrage Opportunities Arising from Diverging Policies between China and the U.S.

The People's Bank of China has continuously increased its gold reserves to 30,000 ounces over the past six months, while the U.S. Treasury has promoted a 12% decline in the dollar index this year through a "controlled devaluation" strategy. This divergence in monetary policy has created a gray channel for cross-border capital to conduct arbitrage through Bitcoin. Data monitoring shows that the over-the-counter trading volume of Bitcoin in the China-U.S. trade corridor grew by 470% during the tariff dispute.

3. Deep Structural Changes in the Market: From Retail Frenzy to Institutional Pricing

1. The "deleveraging" of position structure

In the 2025 futures open interest, the proportion of hedging positions has surpassed 60% for the first time, and the funding rate of perpetual contracts has remained consistently below 0.01% per day. This change means that the market no longer relies on leveraged funds to drive it, and the "double explosion" phenomenon of long and short positions that was common in 2021 has basically disappeared. A large asset management company's Bitcoin ETF has a management scale exceeding $130 billion, and its daily net subscription volume shows a significant negative correlation with the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX).

2. "Layered Reinforcement" of Liquidity Structure

The balance of a certain trading platform's institutional custody account has surpassed 4 million Bitcoins, accounting for about 21% of the circulating supply. These types of "cold storage" chips act as a natural price stabilizer, making it difficult for short-term selling pressure to breach key support levels. When the situation in the Middle East worsened on June 14, leading to panic selling, over $3 billion in buy orders emerged at the $100,000 mark, with 90% coming from institutional over-the-counter trading.

3. The "Traditional Integration" of Valuation Systems

The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has dropped from 0.85 in 2021 to 0.32, while the correlation with the Russell 2000 small-cap stocks has risen to 0.61. This shift reflects the market's reconstruction of valuation logic using traditional asset pricing models: Bitcoin's volatility (annualized at 45%) is now close to that of technology growth stocks, significantly lower than the 128% in 2021.

4. Short-term Price Analysis

Bitcoin found support at the 50-day simple moving average ($103,604) on Friday, but bulls struggled to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($106,028). This indicates a lack of buying interest at higher levels.

According to the daily chart, the 20-day moving average is flattening, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around the midpoint, which does not give a clear advantage to either bulls or bears. If buyers push the price above the 20-day moving average, Bitcoin may rise to the range of $110,530 to $111,980. Sellers are expected to firmly defend this upper area, but if the bulls gain the upper hand, the price could soar to $130,000.

On the downside, breaking below the 50-day moving average may challenge the key psychological level of $100,000. If this level is broken, the price could drop to $93,000.

The seller is attempting to prevent a price rebound at the 20-day moving average on the 4-hour chart. If the price drops significantly and falls below $104,000, the short-term advantage will shift to the bears. The price may drop to $102,664 and then to $100,000. Buyers are expected to staunchly defend the $100,000 level.

Bulls must push the price above the 50-day moving average to gain control. After that, the price could soar to $110,530.

5. Future Path Prediction: Summer Dormancy and Autumn Offensive

1. June-August: Consolidation Period

The Federal Reserve's policy vacuum may cause Bitcoin to fluctuate in the range of $98,000 to $112,000. The key observation point is whether the July FOMC meeting will release a clear signal for interest rate cuts. Technically, the 200-day moving average (currently at $96,500) will serve as strong support. The pulse-like impact of geopolitical conflicts still exists, but market depth indicators show that the amount of funds required for a 1% price fluctuation has increased to three times that of 2022.

2. November 9-11: The main upward wave starts

Historical seasonal patterns show that the average increase in October reaches 21.89%. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's potential first rate cut, Bitcoin may embark on a journey to challenge $150,000. At that time, the peak of maturing U.S. debt ($6.5 trillion) may force the Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet, and the second release of U.S. dollar liquidity will become the best catalyst. The options market has already seen a large accumulation of call options with a strike price of $140,000 expiring in December.

3. Risk Warning: Regulatory Gray Rhino

Regulatory actions against stablecoin issuers may trigger short-term fluctuations, but in the long run, the normalization of spot ETF approvals will attract over $200 billion in traditional asset management funds. Investors should be wary of the "Christmas correction" after the November surge, as historical data shows that the average pullback during this phase in a bull market cycle reaches 18%.

Conclusion: The Positioning of Bitcoin in the New Currency Order

As gold is about to break through $3500, the yield curve of US Treasuries continues to invert, and the proportion of cross-border settlements in RMB surpasses that of the US dollar, we are witnessing the most profound monetary revolution since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Bitcoin plays a dual role in this transformation: it is both a beneficiary of the old system's credit collapse and a builder of the new order's infrastructure. Its price stability no longer stems from a reduction in volatility, but rather from the reconstruction of underlying value support—evolving from a speculative symbol into a liquidity bridge connecting the real economy. In the long winter of fiat currency order reconstruction, Bitcoin is proving to be the hardiest seedling.