CryptoQuant: When Bitcoin's 30-day funding rate percentile is close to 50%, it may indicate a stage bottom.

CryptoQuant's chief analyst Axel Adler Jr's latest research found that there is a key leading indicator for the 30-day funding rate percentile of a major exchange in the Bitcoin market. When this indicator drops below the 50% threshold, it often signals that a market bottom has been reached or is forming.

Historical data shows that when this indicator falls to around 50%, it often signals the formation of a phase bottom. This pattern has been validated four times in the past two years, namely in September 2023, May 2024, September 2024, and most recently in April 2025. Each time the funding rate reached this key level, the Bitcoin price subsequently experienced considerable upward momentum.

The most recent validation is particularly noteworthy. After the funding rate indicator bottomed out in April 2025, Bitcoin began a strong rebound path, with the BTC price climbing to a historic high of $112,000 within the following month.

It is worth noting that the current indicator remains in the neutral range of 54%, indicating that the upward momentum of BTC has not yet been exhausted, and the market is still in a healthy state.

Analysts point out that the next phase requires close attention to the important threshold of the 30-day funding rate approaching 80%, as this threshold typically indicates that market sentiment is overheated, which may lead to the risk of a market correction.

In summary, this finding by CryptoQuant analysts provides investors with a unique window to observe market sentiment. The funding rate percentile indicator not only verifies the intrinsic correlation between derivatives market sentiment and price trends but also constructs a quantifiable market thermometer.

At the same time, its predicted bottom has been empirically validated over multiple cycles, providing objective evidence for investors to determine market turning points. With the increasing maturity of the market, such on-chain data-based quantitative analysis is reshaping our understanding of the cryptocurrency market.

#资金费率 # On-chain data #Market sentiment indicator