According to the latest data, the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering the interest rate by 25 basis points in September has significantly risen to 82.6%. In contrast, the chance of maintaining the current Intrerest Rate is only 17.4%. This significant change has sparked widespread attention in the market regarding the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

Data also shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the Intrerest Rate unchanged until October has dropped to 4.2%. Meanwhile, the probabilities of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points and 50 basis points are 33.1% and 62.7%, respectively. This data reflects the market's growing expectation for the Federal Reserve to adopt a loose monetary policy in the coming months.

The main reasons for this expected change include the recently released weak employment data. In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls only increased by 73,000, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was also significantly revised down. These factors have collectively driven the market's expectations for an interest rate cut.

It is worth noting that Federal Reserve Governor Quigley is about to resign, which may create opportunities for new governor appointments. This personnel change may also impact future monetary policy decisions.

The next two important meetings of the Federal Reserve are scheduled for September 17 and October 29. These meetings will become key points for observing the Federal Reserve's policy direction. With the continuous release of economic data and changes in the global economic situation, market expectations for Federal Reserve policy may be further adjusted.

Overall, the current economic indicators and market expectations point to the Federal Reserve possibly adopting a more accommodative monetary policy stance in the short term. However, the final decision will still depend on more economic data and trends in the global economy. Investors and economists will closely monitor the economic indicators and statements from Federal Reserve officials in the coming weeks for more clues about potential policy changes.