Bitcoin bull run cycle analysis: When will the next peak arrive?

By analyzing historical data, we can gain insights into the patterns of the Bitcoin bull run cycles, thus better predicting the development of the current cycle. This article will delve into when and at what level the next Bitcoin price peak may occur.

Pi Cycle Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top indicator is one of the important tools for analyzing Bitcoin cycles. This indicator monitors the 111-day and 350-day moving averages multiplied by 2(, and when these two lines cross, it often signifies that Bitcoin has reached its cycle peak, with a prediction accuracy typically within a few days. Currently, due to sideways consolidation, these two moving averages have been separated for months, and the 111-day trend line has started to rise, gradually narrowing the gap between the two.

By observing the differences between the indicators at the top and bottom of the Pi cycle, we can more clearly determine Bitcoin's position in the bull and bear cycles. This oscillation indicator is once again showing an upward trend, suggesting that a new bull run for Bitcoin may be imminent, similar to the cyclical patterns of 2016 and 2020.

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Historical Cycle Review

Throughout history, the bull run cycles of Bitcoin usually exhibit similar stages: an initial rapid rise, a consolidation period, a second peak, followed by a significant correction, and then the start of a new upward trend.

The 2016 cycle experienced the first peak, a pullback, a second peak, and then entered a full bull run. This is very similar to the current trend. The Bitcoin price reached new highs after both pullbacks.

The 2020-2021 cycle, although the pattern is not very obvious, still shows similar trajectories. The price of Bitcoin experienced two peaks, one during the initial surge and the other during the bull run climax when it reached its all-time high.

![[Stable Dog Original] Using Mathematical Methods to Predict the Peak Price of Bitcoin in This Bull Run])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-9b858a550ee22d5281bba27bdbe27820.webp(

Potential Peak Time

Based on historical cycles to simulate different growth scenarios, we can make a preliminary prediction for this cycle:

• If the 2021 cycle pattern repeats, the 111-day and 350-day moving averages may cross around the end of June 2025, indicating that Bitcoin may reach its peak.

• If the extended cycle of 2017 is repeated, the moving average may not cross until the end of January 2026, which means the peak will occur even later.

![[Stable Dog Original] Using Mathematical Methods to Predict the Peak Value of Bitcoin Price in This Bull Run])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-946a7e0d468e3ffbafe55a53c84d3be7.webp(

Price Level Prediction

Historically, Bitcoin prices often greatly exceeded the moving average during peak periods. During the 2017 bull run, the peak price reached 3 times the value of the average line. However, as the market matures, the diminishing returns of each cycle imply that the future price increases relative to the average line may narrow.

• If we follow the 2021 cycle pattern, the Bitcoin price exceeding the moving average by 40% could peak at around $339,000. Assuming diminishing returns, if the price only exceeds the moving average by 20%, then the mid-cycle peak in 2025 could be close to $200,000.

• If the cycle is extended again like in 2017 but with decreasing returns, Bitcoin may reach a peak of $466,000 in early 2026. More moderate growth could lead to a peak around $388,000.

Although the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching 1 million dollars in this cycle is low, these relatively conservative predictions still represent considerable potential gains.

![[Stable Dog Original] Using Mathematical Methods to Predict the Peak Price of Bitcoin in This Bull Run])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-5c7d3b086fb1a5609c770a3087984af3.webp(

Conclusion

Although these predictions are based on reliable historical data, they cannot guarantee 100% accuracy. Each cycle has its unique dynamics, influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, investor sentiment, and regulatory environment. Diminishing returns and even prolonged cycles are possible scenarios, reflecting the increasingly mature characteristics of the Bitcoin market. Investors should still cautiously assess risks and make rational decisions when referring to these analyses.