Dollar stablecoins reshape the financial order, Bitcoin enters the era of Programmability

As a pioneer and long-term witness in the blockchain industry, Du Jun's name is almost intertwined with every key wave: from co-founding a well-known trading platform in 2013 and promoting the early popularization of Bitcoin domestically; to creating a central node for the circulation of industry information; and then, as a venture capitalist, accurately capturing multiple cyclical opportunities. With his keen judgment of technological trends and a long-term approach to capital operation, he has written countless classic cases in the industry.

Today, he has founded an incubator focused on the intersection of AI and Crypto innovation, remaining active at the forefront of the industry—at the crossroads of the Bitcoin ecosystem, the changing landscape of stablecoins, and the wave of AI, continuously exploring the boundaries of technology, and firmly optimistic about the rise of Chinese people in the global technological landscape.

Recently, a tech media outlet engaged in an in-depth conversation with this benchmark figure who has traversed bull and bear markets. In this ideological clash about the future, Du Jun not only shared his deep analysis of the underlying logic of blockchain but also publicly articulated for the first time why he views BitVM as a "key leap" for the Bitcoin ecosystem, predicting that 2026 will become the "year of programmable Bitcoin." When discussing the Hong Kong stablecoin sandbox and the regulatory game in the United States, he calmly demonstrated the rational judgment of a capital strategist.

The Golden Age of Chinese Technology

Du Jun believes that we are indeed in an era full of opportunities, where Chinese people are in a leading position globally in multiple cutting-edge technology fields, especially in the blockchain industry, where the advantages are particularly prominent.

Exchanges are almost dominated by the Chinese, and so is the mining machine manufacturing. Projects like Tron, Ethereum, Solana, and other well-known public chains have a significant number of Chinese backgrounds in their founding teams and executives. Looking across the industry, whether it is exchanges, mining machine manufacturers, or wallet applications, you can almost always see the presence of Chinese people.

This influence has expanded from blockchain to a broader range of technology fields: in Silicon Valley, Chinese leaders frequently emerge in the AI and semiconductor industries, playing a decisive role in their respective tracks. Compared to a decade ago, when Indian engineers dominated, the current "Chinese dividend" is becoming the new main theme. For this reason, Du Jun chooses to frequently stay in Silicon Valley, experiencing and participating in this structural rise in power.

In Du Jun's view, Chinese people not only possess technological innovation capabilities in key technological sectors such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy, but are also gradually moving towards capital decision-making and industrial leadership positions. This comprehensive rise marks the arrival of the "golden age of Chinese technology" and signifies that Chinese individuals will play an increasingly important role in the global technological competition landscape.

The Positioning and Future of Public Chains

Du Jun believes that currently there are only four core public chains that have truly established themselves: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, and Solana. Their advantages lie not only in the technology itself but also in their clearly defined market positioning:

• Bitcoin is digital gold, it goes without saying;
• Ethereum has become the de facto standard for DeFi infrastructure.
• TRON focuses on stablecoin transfers and settlements, possessing strong scenario applications in the payment field;
• Solana is positioned as a high-performance, low-latency Meme public chain, focusing on ultimate user experience and liquidity hotspots.

The reason these public chains have come this far is not due to a "one-size-fits-all" functionality package, but rather clear strategic choices. In contrast, many other public chains either have vague positioning or mediocre technology, making it difficult for them to break through across cycles.

As for whether new public chains will be needed in the future, Du Jun's judgment is: there is no need in the short term. Nowadays, Ethereum's Layer 1 solution has significantly improved scalability, reduced costs, and enhanced interoperability between assets. Apart from a few Layer 2 projects like Base that have emerged, most have long since disappeared. It's like a Swiss Army knife, where the truly high-frequency used functions are just a few. The market's desire for "new public chains" is often a pseudo-demand amplified by imagination. At least in the next five years, he does not believe that many new public chains will be needed—even five years later, we may not see structural changes.

Bitcoin Ecosystem: From Sentiment to Programmable Future

When it comes to the Bitcoin ecosystem, Du Jun expressed that there are some sentiments involved. Before 2017, certain well-known trading platforms primarily traded Bitcoin and Litecoin, and in the early days, there was even only Bitcoin. At that time, they promoted Bitcoin's immutability, traceability, and distributed characteristics, but rarely mentioned Programmability. After Ethereum emerged, it emphasized the Programmability of blockchain and the space for innovation. The Bitcoin community was once divided into two factions: one faction debated on scaling, leading to forks like BCH and BSV; the other faction hoped that Bitcoin could be programmable, functional like Ethereum.

For many years, the programmability route technology was immature, until the rise of inscriptions and runes in 2023. Du Jun believes it lacks long-term value support and did not participate. Later, the BitVM protocol proposed achieving Bitcoin programmability through a white paper, which he found very interesting. Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset, but liquidity is hard to release. Ethereum has derivative financial products like MakerDAO and Aave, while Bitcoin's WBTC relies on centralized institutions, posing risks. Technologies like BitVM attempt to achieve decentralized minting and redemption, collaborate with mining pools for verification, and create assets similar to YBTC for on-chain scenarios.

Du Jun stated that this is his dream, having invested in BitVM, RGB++, Locking in the World, Lightning, and several other routes. As long as programmability can be realized, he supports it. Now the BitVM route is clear, the code quality is high, and it is expected to achieve the first step of decentralized minting and redemption by September this year, with a complete solution possibly seen next year. The development cycle is long, but there is already a glimmer of hope, with a certain team having 30 to 40 full-time technicians continuously iterating.

Du Jun is optimistic about the Programmability of the Bitcoin ecosystem, believing it is a trend. Because these technological routes have begun to be realized, they are not castles in the air. Last year was just a slogan, but now there has been progress. The Programmability of the Bitcoin ecosystem is not only a technological breakthrough but also the key to unleashing its $2 trillion liquidity.

The "Religion" of Bitcoin and the Struggle for Decentralization

Regarding the viewpoint that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly centralized and that there are many internal code changes, Du Jun stated that logically, it is possible for new coins to emerge in the future because nothing is impossible. However, subjectively, he finds it very difficult. Bitcoin and Ethereum are completely different concepts. Bitcoin is a belief, like a religion, representing digital gold and priceless freedom. You can say it is worth 10,000, 100,000, or even 1 trillion dollars because it is irreplaceable, embodying fundamental culture and belief. If Ethereum loses its DeFi projects and the number of transactions drops from 5 million to 500,000, it might be sold off, but Bitcoin will not. In the early days, they called it "recharging belief," and this is the logic behind it. In the short term, it is difficult for any coin to replace Bitcoin's status.

Industry Transition: From Faith to Bare Reality

Looking back at the industry's changes, Du Jun stated that in 2012 he bought Bitcoin, and in 2013 he co-founded a trading platform and served as CMO, promoting the platform and Bitcoin. In the early days, the first step was to get users interested in Bitcoin, discussing its technological reliability and asset allocation, etc. At that time, there weren't many application scenarios, and price fluctuations were not significant; they relied on technology and the concept of digital gold to attract users. By 2015, he was talking about Bitcoin with local governments, and from 2018 to 2022, he was still discussing it in Singapore, with a sense of achievement gradually fading. It’s not that the world hasn’t progressed; it's that we haven't progressed, still talking about Bitcoin after more than a decade. It's like not discussing the HTTP protocol with parents, but rather talking about how mobile internet makes life convenient. Blockchain should also focus on application scenarios.

Two years ago, Du Jun discovered that stablecoins are a breakthrough point, offering high efficiency and low cost for cross-border transfers. Traditional transfers take 1 to 4 days and cost 18 to 25 dollars, while Ethereum transfers cost only 0.25 to 1 dollar. Last year, the total transfer volume of USDT and USDC reached 27 trillion dollars, surpassing Visa and Mastercard's 25 to 26 trillion, demonstrating the blockchain's contribution to economic efficiency. There have been several key moments in history: the Bitcoin white paper in 2008, the Ethereum ICO in 2017 that granted equal rights in currency issuance, the DeFi Summer in 2020 that achieved on-chain decentralized finance, and the promotion of stablecoins from 2014 to 2017. However, this cycle lacks innovation, with only Meme and Tap2earn projects that harvest users rather than create value, leading to a boring industry. Without incremental users and assets, exchanges struggle to rise. New assets create new exchanges, such as NFT assets giving rise to certain NFT trading platforms, and this round of Meme assets spawning some emerging trading platforms. If the industry is left with only Meme and Tap2earn, it may be "game over".

The Success and Future of Stablecoins

When it comes to stablecoins, Du Jun believes it is interesting to study the history of currency issuance. In the early days, shells and gold were used, and each country had its own currency after its formation. In a free competitive market, the US dollar and gold prevailed, and no one chose the Zimbabwean dollar or the Hong Kong dollar. Within a sovereign country, currency is mandated by the government, but in global circulation, the US dollar dominates. The future will break through sovereignty and lead to free competition, where US dollar stablecoins have the greatest advantage. Gold stablecoins are unstable due to their investment properties. USDT prevails because of its wide range of use cases and high acceptance. Hong Kong banknotes are issued by three banks, and the US does not care who issues US dollar stablecoins as long as they are pegged to US dollar assets. Currently, the use cases for the Hong Kong dollar, Singapore dollar, and Cambodian riel are limited, and online expansion still faces challenges. Stablecoins need scenario support; for example, if some large tech companies issue coins without a scenario, they are also unlikely to succeed.

Regarding the de-dollarization faced by the dominance of the US dollar, the scale of stablecoins is expected to grow from hundreds of billions to 3 trillion dollars, and the view that Bitcoin may become a reservoir for stablecoins is possible, but at this stage, stablecoins are used for payments and arbitrage. The issuance of stablecoins is not for buying other coins, but for arbitrage. In reality, the interest rate on the dollar is 2%, US treasury bonds at 4%, and on-chain arbitrage can reach over a dozen points. This siphons off funds from altcoins, impacting their prices. Whether it will become a reservoir in the future needs to be observed, and he is not very optimistic.

Regarding the US GENIUS Act and Hong Kong allowing the issuance of various stablecoins, Du Jun stated that he hasn't studied it as there are no plans to issue stablecoins. The most profitable aspects in blockchain are exchanges, stablecoins, and public chains, but wanting to do something and being able to do it are two different things. Stablecoins require scenario support, and USDT and USDC have succeeded due to their scenarios, while dozens of others have failed.