📍Jackson Hole this week, the day Powell decides: How the market is performing until the end of autumn

📌Expectations for a rate cut in September are rising to ~85%, but Powell is likely not to provide Wall Street with a clear answer – instead, it will be a message along the lines of "it still depends on the data."

📌The market is in a risk-on state as Asian stocks inch up, the USD cools down, and oil prices drop, not yet enough certainty that the Fed will soften its tone in Jackson Hole.

📌If Jackson Hole does not show dovish signals, the market could dump 7–15% in the remainder of the fall, and this correction will not only affect stocks but will also spill over to crypto & commodities.

📌Inflation is slowing, the labor market is not weak enough → Powell is caught between two sides: easing is seen as weakness, while tightening could crush expectations. Everything will be revealed in 15 minutes in Wyoming. Jackson Hole 2025 is the expectation test for the entire market.