Beneath the Bubble: The Structural Crisis of Civilization

We are currently at the end of a highly financialized era. The extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency market is merely a surface issue; the deeper problems lie in excessive liquidity, market distortion, and a civilizational system that is gradually collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.

The S&P 500 index hitting a new high has sparked cheers, but this is nothing more than a liquidity illusion. After adjusting for inflation, the index has seen virtually no real growth since the turn of the 21st century. This is not true economic growth, but merely an expansion of the money supply.

The adjustment of interest rates can no longer solve the current structural problems faced. Now, there are only three aspects that truly matter:

1. The Slow Collapse of the Debt System

The modern monetary order has reached its end. It is built on an ever-expanding foundation of debt and now faces irreconcilable internal contradictions. Traditional stimulus measures and bailout plans rely on a fallacy: the more debt, the greater the prosperity.

But this illusion is collapsing. Productivity growth is stagnating, and demographic changes are counter to this system. The working-age population is shrinking, the dependency ratio is continually expanding, and consumption increasingly relies on credit rather than income. This economic machine is aging and can no longer self-repair.

The 2008 financial crisis should have burst this bubble, but it failed to do so. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, succeeded because it exposed deeper moral costs. The responses of many governments indicate that survival is not equal for everyone.

The result is the decline of government legitimacy. Today's institutions resemble mere shells sustained by surveillance, subsidies, and manipulation of public opinion. Certain high-profile cases are not anomalies but reveal the true structure: a system interwoven with crime, governance, and capital.

2. The Closure of Intelligent Technology

Discussions around Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) remain mired in naive optimism. Most people believe that AI will become as ubiquitous as common office software, turning into a productivity tool.

This is an unrealistic fantasy.

If machines gain the ability to self-improve, capable of simulating complex systems and designing new types of weapons, they will inevitably be subject to strict control. Just like nuclear technology and gene editing technology, every powerful technology will ultimately become a tool for national governance, and superintelligence is no exception.

The public will not have direct access to AGI. They will only be able to access sanitized AI fragments that are encapsulated within specific user interfaces. The real system will be hidden, restricted, and trained to serve strategic purposes.

3. Time Becomes the New Currency

So far, money can buy comfort, safety, and social status, but it cannot buy time. This situation is changing. With the development of artificial intelligence decoding the genome and synthetic biology, we are moving towards an era where longevity becomes an engineered advantage.

But this will not be a universal public health revolution. True lifespan extension, cognitive enhancement, and embryo optimization will be extremely expensive, heavily regulated, and politically controversial. Governments around the world are already overwhelmed by an aging population and will not encourage universal longevity.

Therefore, the rich will not only become richer, but will also be biologically different. The ability to change the human genetic blueprint will create a new economic class: those who can escape the normal death curve through biotechnology. Longevity will become the ultimate luxury, serving only a few.

The Future in Differentiation

The current society is diverging into three different development tracks:

1. Anesthetizing the masses: immersed in AI-generated virtual stimuli, politically irrelevant. This is the experience of most people.

2. Cognitive elites: a small group with enhanced biology and intelligence. They pursue control over biology and death, rather than mere economic returns.

3. New "Hermit": Choosing to disconnect and seek meaning outside of machines. Spiritually affluent, but may fail strategically.

The first type of person provides financial support to the second type of person. The third type of person attempts to resist the first two.

Most people go with the flow, barely surviving, unaware that they have become products of the system rather than participants. But for those who have insight into the future, choosing to withdraw is no longer neutral; it is a form of resistance.

Clear Strategies in a Fractured World

The market is filled with noise and distractions. Cryptocurrencies, stocks, and various yield games are merely optional tools, not a path to salvation. The real survival game is about who can escape the collapse and under what conditions they can escape.

• The current design of the monetary system is continuously degrading.
• Superintelligence will not become a widely used productive tool.
• Biotechnology will turn "time" into a scarce resource.
• Certain high-profile cases reveal the unaccountability of power.

After understanding these trends, the question is no longer how to "beat the market," but rather how to prepare for an asymmetric situation in a system that no longer serves ordinary participants.

Insight comes from systemic thinking, not just simple price trends. However, most people do not look up until it is too late to awaken. Because dying in confusion is more terrifying than dying penniless.