Blockchain Pioneer Du Jun: Dollar Stablecoins Reshape Financial Order, Bitcoin Welcomes the Year of Programmability

As a pioneer and long-term witness in the Blockchain industry, Du Jun's name has almost run through every key wave: from early participation in the popularization of Bitcoin in China, to becoming a central node for industry information flow, and then to accurately capturing multiple cyclical opportunities. With his keen judgment of technological trends and long-termism in capital operations, he has written countless classic cases in the industry.

Today, Du Jun has founded an incubator focused on the intersection of AI and Crypto innovation, remaining active on the cutting edge of the industry. At the crossroads of the Bitcoin ecosystem, the changing landscape of stablecoins, and the wave of AI, he continues to explore the boundaries of technology and firmly believes in the rise of Chinese people in the global technology landscape.

Recently, an industry insider engaged in an in-depth dialogue with this benchmark figure who has traversed the bull and bear markets. In this ideological clash about the future, Du Jun not only shared his in-depth analysis of the underlying logic of Blockchain but also publicly explained for the first time why he considers BitVM to be a "key leap" for the Bitcoin ecosystem, predicting that 2026 will be the "year of programmable Bitcoin." When discussing the Hong Kong stablecoin sandbox and the regulatory games with the United States, he calmly displayed the cool judgment of a capital strategist.

The Golden Age of Chinese Technology

Du Jun believes that we are indeed in an era full of opportunities, where Chinese people are at the forefront of several cutting-edge technology fields globally, especially in the Blockchain industry, where the advantages are particularly prominent.

Exchanges are almost entirely dominated by the Chinese, and the same goes for mining machine manufacturing. Public chain projects like Tron, Ethereum, Solana, and BNBChain also have a substantial number of founders and executives with Chinese backgrounds. Looking around in social circles, whether it's exchanges, mining machine manufacturers, or wallet applications, you can almost always see the presence of Chinese.

This influence has extended from Blockchain to a broader range of technological fields: in Silicon Valley, leaders of Chinese descent are frequently emerging in the AI and semiconductor industries, playing a decisive role in their respective tracks. Compared to the era ten years ago when Indian engineers dominated, today's "Chinese bonus" is becoming the new main theme. For this reason, Du Jun chooses to frequently stay in Silicon Valley, personally experiencing and participating in this structural rise.

In Du Jun's view, Chinese people not only possess technological innovation capabilities in key technological sectors such as Blockchain, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and new energy, but are also gradually moving towards capital decision-making levels and industry leadership. This comprehensive rise marks the arrival of the "Golden Age of Chinese Technology" and signifies that Chinese people will play an increasingly important role in the global technological competition landscape.

The Positioning and Future of Public Chains

Du Jun believes that currently there are only four core public chains that have truly established themselves: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, and Solana. Their advantages lie not only in the technology itself but also in their clear market positioning:

• Bitcoin is digital gold, no need to say more;
• Ethereum has become the de facto standard for DeFi infrastructure;
• TRON focuses on stablecoin transfers and settlements, with strong scenario implementation in the payment field;
• Solana is positioned as a high-performance, low-latency Meme public chain, focusing on ultimate user experience and liquidity hotspots.

The reason these public chains have reached today is not due to "one-size-fits-all" functionalities, but rather clear strategic choices. In contrast, many other public chains either have unclear positioning or mediocre technology, making it difficult to break through across cycles.

As for whether new public chains will be needed in the future, Du Jun's judgment is: there is no need in the short term. The Layer 1 solution of Ethereum has significantly improved scalability, reduced costs, and enhanced interoperability between assets. Apart from a few Layer 2 projects like Base that have emerged, most have long since disappeared. It's like a Swiss Army knife; the functions that are truly used frequently are actually just a few. The market's desire for "new public chains" is often a false demand magnified by imagination. At least in the next five years, he does not believe that many new public chains will be needed—even five years later, we may not necessarily see structural changes.

The Cycle of Exchanges and Missed Investment Opportunities

When talking about the exchanges favored in this bull market, Du Jun expressed his optimism for Hyperliquid, but regretted not investing. There are two reasons: first, they do not accept external investments, and he had contact with them early on; the team almost did not take external funding. Second, Du Jun did not buy their coin in the early stages, and by the time he wanted to buy, it had already risen to 15 dollars, missing the best opportunity. In the past, he could always hit the mark every round, but this time he was distracted by researching AI and other fields, lacking the focus to invest enough effort in the primary market.

Du Jun admitted that the opportunity in this round of bull market for exchanges has been missed, reflecting the importance of focus in investment. He mentioned that some institutions have performed well in branding and investment, indicating that the primary market still has potential, but requires precise judgment and resource investment.

Bitcoin Ecosystem: From Sentiment to Programmable Future

Du Jun stated that there are some sentiments in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Before 2017, major exchanges traded Bitcoin and Litecoin, and at the beginning, there was even only Bitcoin. At that time, they promoted the immutability, traceability, and distributed characteristics of Bitcoin, but rarely mentioned its Programmability. After the emergence of Ethereum, the Programmability and innovation space of Blockchain were emphasized. The Bitcoin community was once divided into two factions: one faction debated scaling, leading to forks like BCH and BSV; the other faction hoped that Bitcoin could be Programmable and functional like Ethereum.

For many years, the programmability route technology has been immature, until the rise of inscriptions and runes in 2023. In Du Jun's view, it lacks long-term value support, and he did not participate. Later, the BitVM protocol proposed to achieve Bitcoin programmability through a white paper, which he found very interesting. Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset, but its liquidity is hard to release. Ethereum has derivative financial products like MakerDAO and Aave, while Bitcoin's WBTC relies on centralized institutions, which poses the risk of running away. Technologies like BitVM attempt to achieve decentralized minting and redemption, verify through joint mining pools, and create assets similar to YBTC for use in on-chain scenarios.

Du Jun has invested in multiple routes such as BitVM, RGB++, World Lock, and Lightning. As long as programmability can be achieved, he supports it. Now the BitVM route is clear, the code quality is high, and the first step towards decentralized minting and redemption is expected to be realized before September this year, with a complete plan possibly seen next year. The development cycle is long, but there is already a glimmer of hope, with the Bitlayer team having 30 to 40 full-time technicians continuously iterating.

Du Jun is optimistic about the programmability of the Bitcoin ecosystem, believing it to be a trend. This is because these technological routes have begun to be realized, not just castles in the air. Last year was just a slogan, but now there has been progress. The programmability of the Bitcoin ecosystem is not only a technological breakthrough but also the key to unlocking its $2 trillion liquidity.

The "Religion" of Bitcoin and the Battle for Decentralization

Regarding the viewpoint that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly centralized and that there are many internal code changes, Du Jun stated that logically, it is possible for new coins to emerge in the future because nothing is impossible. However, subjectively, he finds it very difficult. Bitcoin and Ethereum are completely different concepts. Bitcoin is a belief, like a religion, representing digital gold and priceless freedom. You can say it is worth 10,000, 100,000, or even 1 trillion dollars because it is irreplaceable, representing fundamental culture and belief. If Ethereum loses its DeFi projects and its transaction volume drops from 5 million to 500,000, it may be sold off, but Bitcoin will not. In the early days, they shouted "Recharge Faith", which is the logic behind this. In the short term, it is unlikely that any coin will replace Bitcoin's position.

Industry Transition: From Belief to Bare Reality

Du Jun reflected on the changes in the industry. He bought Bitcoin in 2012, participated in founding an exchange in 2013, and served as CMO, promoting the exchange and Bitcoin. In the early days, it was important to get users interested in Bitcoin, discussing its technological reliability and asset allocation, etc. At that time, there weren't many application scenarios, the price fluctuations were small, and they attracted users with technology and the concept of digital gold. By 2015, he was talking about Bitcoin with local governments, and from 2018 to 2022, he was still discussing it in Singapore, with a sense of accomplishment gradually fading. It’s not that the world hasn’t progressed; it’s that we haven’t progressed, still talking about Bitcoin after over a decade. It’s like not discussing the HTTP protocol with parents, but rather how mobile internet makes life more convenient. Blockchain should also focus on application scenarios.

Two years ago, Du Jun discovered that stablecoins were a breakthrough point, offering high efficiency and low cost for cross-border transfers. Traditional transfers take 1 to 4 days and cost between 18 to 25 dollars, while Ethereum transfers only cost between 0.25 to 1 dollar. Last year, the total transfer volume of USDT and USDC reached 27 trillion dollars, surpassing Visa and Mastercard's 25 to 26 trillion, demonstrating the blockchain's promotion of economic efficiency. There have been several key moments in history: the Bitcoin white paper in 2008, the Ethereum ICO in 2017 which granted equal rights in currency issuance, the DeFi Summer in 2020 which realized on-chain decentralized finance, and the promotion of stablecoins from 2014 to 2017. However, this cycle lacks innovation, featuring only Meme and Tap2earn projects that harvest users instead of creating value, leading to a lack of excitement in the industry. Without incremental users and assets, exchanges find it difficult to rise. New assets create new exchanges, as seen with NFT assets giving rise to Opensea, and this round of Meme assets has led to some new platforms. If the industry is left with only Meme and Tap2earn, it might be "game over."

The Success and Future of Stablecoins

When it comes to stablecoins, Du Jun believes that studying the history of currency issuance is very interesting. In the early days, shells and gold were used, and each country had its own currency once they formed. In a free competitive market, the US dollar and gold prevailed, with no one choosing the Zimbabwe dollar or the Hong Kong dollar. Within sovereign nations, currency is enforced by the government, but in global circulation, the US dollar dominates. The future after breaking through sovereignty is free competition, with the US dollar stablecoin having the greatest advantage. Gold stablecoins are unstable due to their investment property. USDT prevails due to its wide range of use cases and high acceptance. Hong Kong banknotes are issued by three banks, while the US doesn't care who issues the US dollar stablecoin, as long as it is pegged to US dollar assets. Currently, the use cases for the Hong Kong dollar, Singapore dollar, and Cambodian riel are limited, and online expansion still faces challenges. Stablecoins need scenario support; for instance, if certain large tech companies issue coins without scenarios, they are also unlikely to succeed.

Regarding the view that Bitcoin will become a stablecoin reservoir, with 60% of stablecoin value pegged to Bitcoin, Du Jun stated that it is possible, but at this stage, stablecoins are used for payments and arbitrage. The issuance of stablecoins is not to buy other coins, but for arbitrage. In reality, the interest on the dollar is 2%, U.S. Treasuries 4%, and on-chain arbitrage can reach several percentage points. This drains funds from altcoins, impacting their prices. Whether it will become a reservoir in the future needs to be observed, and he is not very optimistic.

As for issuing US dollar stablecoins in the United States or Hong Kong, Du Jun stated that he hasn't researched it because there are no plans to issue stablecoins. The most profitable areas in Blockchain are exchanges, stablecoins, and public chains, but wanting to do something and being able to do it are two different things. Stablecoins need scenario support; USDT and USDC have succeeded due to their scenarios, while dozens of others have failed.