Will BTC rise to 100,000? Maybe next year, maybe in the next life.

In the current context of volatility in the cryptocurrency market, many people are discussing the future trend of Bitcoin (BTC). Although BTC recently reached the $70,000 mark, it seems there is still a long way to go to the $100,000 target.

First, we need to think about what exactly is supporting the value of BTC? Is it its status as the oldest cryptocurrency? Is it the fixed total supply of 21 million coins? Or is it the technological security brought by decentralization? Perhaps more people would think that global consensus is supporting the value of BTC.

Compared to Ethereum ( ETH ), BTC is not superior in terms of application ecosystem. ETH supports smart contracts and has a richer application ecosystem. In terms of user numbers, data from 2023 shows that BTC has an average of about 1.14 million active addresses daily, while ETH has about 580,000. The SOL chain, known as the "ETH killer", has already surpassed ETH in daily trading volume and amount.

So why can BTC still maintain its position as the number one by market value? This may require thinking from a higher dimension.

There are quite a few positive news about BTC in the market right now:

• BTC halving
• The opening of BTC and ETH spot ETFs may bring more funds.
• The cryptocurrency market is being accepted by mainstream finance, and regulation is gradually intervening.
• The U.S. may cut interest rates
• In the U.S. presidential election, some candidates have a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency.

But whether these factors can truly drive the BTC price to rise remains to be seen. The opening of ETFs may only divert funds from traditional financial markets and may not necessarily bring in a large amount of incremental funds. While regulatory intervention is beneficial for long-term development, it may create uncertainty in the short term.

From a more macro perspective, the price trend of BTC may be closely related to the status of the US dollar. As the global economic landscape changes, the dominance of the dollar is being challenged. Whether the US government can continue to support the crypto market in the future remains an unknown.

Therefore, whether BTC can reach 100,000 USD depends on many factors. It is necessary to consider various aspects such as the global economic situation, geopolitical issues, regulatory policies, and more. For ordinary investors, maintaining rationality and a long-term perspective may be more important.