Inflation data exceeded expectations moderately, the crypto market showed an initial rise followed by a decline.

The latest US inflation data for May shows a milder-than-expected trend, providing positive signals for risk assets. Specifically, the seasonally unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year rate is 2.4%, lower than the market expectation of 2.5%; the month-on-month rate is only 0.1%, also below the expected 0.2%.

Core inflation data also shows a slowing trend: the annual rate is 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9%; the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month is only 0.1%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 0.3%.

After the data was released, the crypto market experienced a rise followed by a decline. One major cryptocurrency briefly approached $110,000 during the day, while another major cryptocurrency rose by 3% to $2,834, and XRP increased by 1.8% to $2.32. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies remained around $3.4 trillion over the past 24 hours. Data shows that as of the time of writing, the total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours reached $300 million, with one major cryptocurrency accounting for about $100 million in liquidations and another major cryptocurrency approximately $37 million.

Large Capital Transfers Raise Concerns

While the prices of certain mainstream cryptocurrencies fluctuate, on-chain data shows a significant increase in whale activity.

On June 11, the on-chain tracking platform observed a large influx of a certain mainstream cryptocurrency into a US cryptocurrency exchange. According to tracking data, within about two hours, multiple anonymous whales transferred over 3,165 units of a certain mainstream cryptocurrency (worth over $347 million) to the exchange through several transactions.

The largest transaction involved 738 units of a certain mainstream encryption currency, while other multiple transactions were also large transfers from anonymous wallets (such as 466 units, 464 units, 463 units, etc.).

It is worth noting that 510 units of a certain mainstream encryption currency (valued at approximately $56.1 million) were transferred from a well-known encryption trading company to the institutional account of that U.S. exchange, which usually suggests that a giant whale might have the intention to sell. Although the specific reason has not been confirmed, it may also be an attempt by the giant whale to rebalance their portfolio. Given the large and frequent volume of these transfers, and the involvement of well-known institutions, it is likely the operation of large participants, especially institutions.

As a result, a certain mainstream cryptocurrency fell below the $110,000 mark at the opening of the day and stabilized around $108,677 at the time of writing.

Market Analysis and Technical Outlook

Data shows that the funding rate in the current mainstream crypto market contract is very stable or relatively low.

This usually indicates that the current rebound is primarily driven by investors actually purchasing spot, rather than being propelled by high-leverage contract trading. When high-leverage positions do not dominate the market, the risk of a large-scale sell-off and sharp decline is relatively low, thus the likelihood of prices continuing to rise is greater.

From a technical perspective, a certain mainstream cryptocurrency opened with a gap up of about 1% yesterday, quoted around 110,375 points. After the opening, the price fluctuated around this level for about 180 minutes, then slowly declined, reaching an intraday low of 108,720 points around 11:33. Around 2:02 PM, the price quickly surged, ultimately closing at approximately 110,455 points. The day ended with a bullish doji candlestick with a longer lower shadow, showing an increase of about 1.02%.

According to the analysis of the daily trading channel model, a certain mainstream encryption currency is currently operating above the protective channel, indicating that the medium-term trend remains strong. The sentiment indicators are also gradually rising with the price increase, suggesting that market confidence is recovering.

From the 1-hour candlestick chart, the trading model shows that the short-term price is running above the long and short lines, and the sentiment indicator is in the high zone, about to form a top divergence pattern. This indicates a higher probability of increased market volatility in the short term, and it may retest the 108,720 point (intraday low). It is important to pay close attention to whether this low point will be broken.

Comprehensive analysis indicates that the market may experience fluctuations in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor the support at the 108,720 point level. In the medium term, the bullish trend continues, and investors can maintain an optimistic attitude.